UPDATE: 7:00am ET on Sunday March 27
Since the nominations for the 94th Academy Awards were announced February 8, the Oscar race has evolved considerably. Back then it seemed like Netflix’s “The Power of the Dog” was the overwhelming frontrunner. But in the time since, “CODA” has surged dramatically, following rival streamer Apple TV+ going old school and screening the film frequently and judiciously for Academy voting members.
IndieWire’s Editor-at-Large and awards expert Anne Thompson released her full list of predictions for the Oscar winners on Thursday, and she believes “CODA” will win best picture, though the other most likely choice still is “The Power of the Dog.”
The Best Actress category has evolved to be nearly a five-way race: Jessica Chastain seems to have all the momentum after winning Best Actress at the SAG Awards and Critics Choice Awards; but some think Penélope Cruz could be a contender for “Parallel Mothers,” while Kristen Stewart earned raves for playing Princess Diana in “Spencer,” Nicole Kidman won the Golden Globe for Best Actress for “Being the Ricardos,” and Olivia Colman is an Academy favorite, having recently won an Oscar (for 2018’s “The Favourite,” while she’s nominated for “The Lost Daughter” this year and was for Best Supporting Actress for “The Father” last year).
The other acting categories seem largely set. Thompson thinks Will Smith will win Best Actor for “King Richard,” Ariana DeBose Supporting Actress for “West Side Story,” and Troy Kotsur for “Coda.” And Jane Campion is the unchanged frontrunner for Best Director.
Adapted Screenplay seems like the other prominent category that’s a real horserace, though, with Thompson ultimately choosing “CODA” (which is based on a 2014 French film) over Maggie Gyllenhaal’s Elena Ferrante adaptation “The Lost Daughter” or Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe’s Haruki Murakami adaptation “Drive My Car.”
With all those new developments, it makes it all the more interesting to look back at the below, at where things stood on February 8. So much has happened since then.
Article Previously Published on February 8:
The time has come for the 94th annual Academy Awards nominations. While this year’s ceremony isn’t as quite as far off as last year’s delayed event — pushed to late April — it’s still a long road ahead for the contenders. This year’s Oscars ceremony takes place March 27, with all eyes on Netflix, packing the bulk of the momentum with massive contenders like “Don’t Look Now” and “The Power of the Dog.”
The nominations were revealed bright and early Tuesday morning by actors Leslie Jordan and Tracee Ellis Ross. Notably, it was a strong year for foreign films. “Drive My Car” broke into both the Best Picture and Best Director races. “Flee” earned nominations for Documentary, Animated Feature, and Best International Feature. Meantime, some surprises included Pedro Almodóvar and Denis Villeneuve being shut out of Best Director for “Dune” (the latter did score a nomination for adapted screenplay), Jessie Buckley making it in for Best Supporting Actress for “The Lost Daughter,” Lady Gaga getting shut out of the Best Actress race (“House of Gucci” only showed up once, in Makeup and Hairstyling), Jesse Plemons sharing a Best Supporting Actor nomination with Kodi Smit-McPhee for “The Power of the Dog,” Chastain inching in for Best Actress for “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” and more. See the full list below.
Best Picture
“Belfast”
“CODA”
“Don’t Look Up”
“Drive My Car”
“Dune”
“King Richard”
“Licorice Pizza”
“Nightmare Alley”
“The Power of the Dog”
“West Side Story”
Best Director
Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, “Drive My Car”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”
Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”
Steven Spielberg, “West Side Story”
Best Actor
Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”
Andrew Garfield, “Tick, Tick, Boom”
Will Smith, “King Richard”
Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter”
Penelope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers”
Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”
Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”
Best Supporting Actor
Ciarán Hinds, “Belfast”
Troy Kotsur, “CODA”
Jesse Plemons, “The Power of the Dog”
JK Simmons, “Being the Ricardos”
Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog”
Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley, “The Lost Daughter”
Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”
Judi Dench, “Belfast”
Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”
Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard”
Best Adapted Screenplay
“CODA,” Sian Heder
“Drive My Car,” Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
“Dune,” Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth
“The Lost Daughter,” Maggie Gyllenhaal
“The Power of the Dog,” Jane Campion
Best Original Screenplay
“Belfast,” Kenneth Branagh
“Don’t Look Up,” Adam McKay, Story by McKay and David Sirota
“King Richard,” Zack Baylin
“Licorice Pizza,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Worst Person in the World,” Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
Best Animated Feature
“Encanto”
“Flee”
“Luca”
“The Mitchells vs. the Machines”
“Raya and the Last Dragon”
Best Animated Short
“Affairs of the Art”
“Bestia”
“Boxballet”
“Robin Robin”
“The Windshield Wiper”
Best Live Action Short
“Ala Kachuu- Take and Run”
“The Dress”
“The Long Goodbye”
“On My Mind”
“Please Hold”
Best Cinematography
“Dune”
“Nightmare Alley”
“The Power of the Dog”
“The Tragedy of Macbeth”
“West Side Story”
Best Costume Design
“Cruella”
“Cyrano”
“Dune”
“Nightmare Alley”
“West Side Story”
Best Documentary Feature
“Ascension”
“Attica”
“Flee”
“Summer of Soul”
“Writing with Fire”
Best Documentary Short Subject
“Audible”
“Lead Me Home”
“The Queen of Basketball”
“Three Songs for Benazir”
“When We Were Bullies”
Best Editing
“Don’t Look Up”
“Dune”
“King Richard”
“The Power of the Dog”
“Tick, Tick, Boom”
Best International Feature Film
“Drive My Car”
“Flee”
“The Hand of God”
“Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom”
“The Worst Person in the World”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“Coming 2 America”
“Cruella”
“Dune”
“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
“House of Gucci”
Best Production Design
“Dune”
“Nightmare Alley”
“The Power of the Dog”
“The Tragedy of Macbeth”
“West Side Story”
Best Original Score
“Don’t Look Up”
“Dune”
“Encanto”
“Parallel Mothers”
“The Power of the Dog”
Best Original Song
“Be Alive” from “King Richard”
“Dos Oruguitas” from “Encanto”
“Down to Joy” from “Belfast”
“No Time to Die” from “No Time to Die”
“Somehow You Do” from “Four Good Days”
Best Sound
“Belfast”
“Dune”
“No Time to Die”
“The Power of the Dog”
“West Side Story”
Best Visual Effects
“Dune”
“Free Guy”
“No Time to Die”
“Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”
“Spider-Man: No Way Home”
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