We will update all our Oscar predictions throughout the season, so keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Oscar race. The nomination round of voting will take place from January 12 to January 17, 2023, with the official Oscar nominations announced on January 24, 2023. The final voting is between March 2 and 7, 2023. Finally, the 95th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 12 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
See our initial thoughts for what to expect at the 95th Academy Awards here.
The State of the Race
Oscar nominees “Elvis,” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” and “The Whale” were the Feature Motion Picture winners along with “Everything Everywhere All at Once” February 11 at the 10th annual MUAHS Guild Awards (held at the Beverly Hilton).
“Elvis” took two awards: period/character makeup and period hairstyling/character hairstyling; “Wakanda Forever” won for contemporary hairstyling; and “The Whale” snagged special makeup effects. “EEAAO,” which was overlooked by the Academy, was awarded the contemporary makeup honor. Angela Bassett (Best Supporting Actress nominee for “Wakanda Forever”) received the Distinguished Artisan Award.
The other two MUAHS Oscar nominees are “The Batman” and “All Quiet on the Western Front,” the Best Picture nominee and Best International Feature nominee from Germany, which did not qualify for the guild submission.
The results bolster the three-way Oscar race between “Elvis,” “The Whale,” and “Wakanda Forever.” Both “Elvis” and “The Whale” offer impressive character work surrounding their Best Actor nominees: Austin Butler as Presley in the delirious Baz Luhrmann musical biopic and Brendan Fraser in Darren Aronofsky’s intense drama about the redemption of a 600-pound online English teacher.
In transforming Butler into the King of Rock ‘n’ Roll, the “Elvis” team did a slight progression from the ’50s through the ’70s. The key was getting the iconic pompadour right: Although they colored the actor’s hair for the early ’50s, wigs were used for subsequent eras, going higher and higher. Facial prosthetics were applied and became more chiseled as Presley got older and his jawline hardened. Dreamy eyelashes and eye makeup completed the look.
The “Elvis” guild win went to makeup and hairstylist Shane Thomas, makeup artist Angela Conte, and hairstylist Louise Coulston. The Oscar nominees are prosthetic makeup artists Mark Coulier and Jason Baird and makeup artist Aldo Signoretti.
The most innovative work, though, occurred on “The Whale,” which is why it’s the frontrunner. Fraser was transformed through the first-time use of all-digital prosthetic makeup for a major feature, pioneered by prosthetic makeup designer Adrien Morot. This pushed Fraser’s weight to the severest extreme without covering his face and obfuscating his emotional range of expression.
“The Whale” guild win went to Morot and makeup artists Kathy Tse and Chris Gallaher. The Oscar nominees are Morot, makeup artist Judy Chin, and hairstylist Anne Marie Bradley.
“Wakanda Forever” achieved a MUAHS breakthrough for the team of Oscar-winning makeup artist Joel Harlow and hairstylist Camille Friend, who did not get nominated for “Black Panther.” The guild hairstyling winners were Friend, Evelyn Feliciano, Marva Stokes, and Victor Paz. The team expanded the Wakandan looks based on various African tribal cultures (especially for Bassett’s Oscar-nominated Queen Ramonda — the first acting recognition for Marvel). They additionally established the looks for the underwater Talokans based on Mesoamerican tribes and cultures (particularly their worship of the sun and moon).
“All Quiet” makeup and hair designer Heike Merker and makeup artist Linda Eisenhamerová immersed themselves in the fine details of applying mud and blood to Paul (Felix Kammerer) and his fellow soldiers on the rain-soaked battlefield. They helped convey their journey into becoming sludge-caked, weary, demoralized soldiers. This entailed an assortment of wigs and lots of facial hair and keeping track of the evolution of the war makeup and hair (especially since scenes were not shot in order).
However, the most unrecognizable work can be found in “The Batman,” courtesy of prosthetic makeup artist Michael Marino, who provided a total transformation for Colin Farrell as low-level gangster Oz/Penguin, without being inhibited at all in delivering his funny, volatile performance. Also nominated were makeup artists Naomi Donne and Mike Fontaine.
Below are the nominees ranked in order of likelihood to win:
“The Whale” (A24)
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel/Disney)
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)
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