2023 Oscars: Best Supporting Actress Predictions

We will update these predictions throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2023 Oscar picks. Final voting is March 2 through 7, 2023.  The 95th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 12 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

See our previous thoughts for what to expect at the 95th Academy Awards here.

The State of the Race

It is fair to say that whoever wins the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress this year will be a surprise, regardless of what precursor(s) they may have won.

The awards season started off with “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Disney) star Angela Bassett winning at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, making her the first actor to win for a performance in a film taking place in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

Things took a turn at the BAFTAs where “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight) star Kerry Condon won Best Supporting Actress, and then at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, it was “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) star Jamie Lee Curtis who triumphed.

Ultimately, the Best Supporting Actress race is between those three women, with a slight edge given to Bassett, a previous nominee for playing Tina Turner in the biopic “What Love Got to Do With It?” (1993), who has had the kind of career the Academy likes giving a legacy Oscar too. Same goes for Curtis, long considered Hollywood royalty, though her co-star Stephanie Hsu being nominated in the same category, and having a more pivotal role within the film “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” may lead to some vote-splitting.

Although like Bassett, Hong Chau was nominated in the category despite her film “The Whale” (A24) not being nominated for Best Picture, the emotional drama directed by Darren Aronofsky has proven too polarizing for her to push through. Condon on the other hand is a firm dark horse candidate as the moral conscience of the very well-liked “Banshees.”

Nominees are listed below in order of likelihood they will win.

Contenders:
Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)
Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Hong Chau (“The Whale”)